Asia Region: Context & Situational Analysis 2022-2025 At Danish Refugee Council

INTRODUCTION

The Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is a humanitarian, non-governmental, non-profit organisation founded in 1956 that works in more than 40 countries throughout the world. DRC fulfils its mandate by providing direct assistance to conflict-affected populations, refugees, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and host communities in conflict areas. DRC places a primacy on promoting a rights-based approach to humanitarian aid with a commitment to protection at the core of its mission.

DRC’s regional presence in Asia was formally established in 2018, though country operations have been in existence much earlier; currently the region consists of country programmes in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Beyond these country operations, DRC hosts two platforms in the region, namely the Mixed Migration Centre – Asia (MMC) and the Asia Displacement Solutions Platform (ADSP).

MMC is a leading source for independent and high-quality data, research, analysis and expertise on mixed migration. MMC Asia’s main activity to date has been 4Mi data collection among Afghans on the move in Afghanistan, Europe and South/Southeast Asia. 4Mi has expanded more recently to include data collection on the movements of other groups of migrants and refugees across Southeast Asia. 4Mi data collection is currently taking place in Afghanistan, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.

The Asia Displacement Solutions Platform (ADSP) is a joint initiative between DRC, International Rescue Committee (IRC), and Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), which aims to contribute to the development of solutions for populations affected by displacement in the region. Drawing upon its members’ operational presence throughout Asia, and its extensive advocacy networks in Asia, Europe and north America, ADSP engages in evidence-based advocacy initiatives to support improved outcomes for displacement-affected communities.

DRC Asia’s strategic focus for the period 2022-2025 will be to contribute towards regional responses to solutions to displacement by working on multi-stakeholder partnership approaches that tackle the legal, political, social, and economic conditions and barriers, with a view to improving and strengthening the resilience of and outcomes for conflict-affected communities.

CONTEXT

It is not a far-fetched notion that 2022 and beyond will be shaped by the world’s response to three immediate threats: conflict, climate change, and COVID-19.

In Asia, as in other parts of the world, climate-related disaster events are becoming more frequent and variable, creating heightened levels of risk and vulnerability, negatively impacting human rights and disrupting livelihoods and threatening lives around the globe. People caught in humanitarian crises, as well as host communities, are already amongst those most vulnerable to the climate crisis. Should the 1.5°C and 2°C targets established at 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, more commonly referred to as COP26 be missed, humanitarian consequences are projected to increase exponentially and will gradually become global.

Simultaneously, conflict remains a major driver of humanitarian need. One year on since the military seizure of power in Myanmar in February 2021, forced displacement within the country and across its borders into South and Southeast Asia continues to surge, with ever increasing scales and numbers of human rights violations and restrictions to humanitarian access. The Rohingya in particular have suffered decades of violence and persecution in Myanmar and the wider region. Today, the UN estimates that there are 980,000 registered refugees and asylum-seekers from Myanmar in neighboring countries. Nearly 890,000 Rohingya – the vast majority without UNHCR refugee status but registered by the Government of Bangladesh as Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals – live in the Kutapalong and Nayapara refugee camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar region – which have grown to become the largest and most densely populated camp complex in the world. In Afghanistan, , more than forty years of war, recurring natural hazard related disasters, chronic poverty, drought and the COVID-19 pandemic, have left more than 24 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. The recent change of power dynamics and resulting upheaval is exacerbating needs and access, and further complicates an extremely challenging operational context. Notwithstanding the repeated calls for global ceasefires due to the COVID-19 pandemic, political conflicts continue to hit civilian populations the hardest and further exacerbate the needs of the most vulnerable categories of people.

SCOPE

For the purpose of this consultancy, the geographic scope of “Asia” is contained within those geographical locations that entail the two major conflict-displaced axes in the region, namely the Afghan and Rohingya displacement axes. As such, the Afghan displacement axis refers to refugees and migrants on the move from Afghanistan primarily through Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey and onto Europe; and the Rohingya displacement axis includes Rohingya refugees and migrants on the move primarily from Myanmar through Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. In addition, DRC has operational presence with country offices and programmes in Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, as well as a regional project that is remotely managed in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand through the support of civil society partners.

DRC Asia will continue to assess how it can best address displacement in a region that differs in many ways from the other regions where DRC traditionally works. DRC’s standard model of establishing a presence along conflict-affected displacement axes may not be appropriate for a region characterised by high levels of internal displacement primarily as a result of natural disasters, and ever-increasing environmental degradation, where there are capable local NGOs but few with a protection mandate, and the majority of the countries are middle income with the capacity but often not the willingness to address displacement, as they neither have domestic legal frameworks nor have they signed on to relevant international instruments.

As such this consultancy will provide an in-depth overview of the migratory pathways and displacement situations in the region, especially along the displacement axes, and of the regional trends and threats posed by local and national conflicts and acute crises, including those induced by recurring natural hazard events. It will form the basis for the development of the DRC Asia Regional Strategic Plan 2025, in articulating the rationale and objectives for the regional response to conflict and displacement in Asia and is expected to fully align with the DRC Global Strategy 2025, DRC Response Framework, and the DRC Climate Framework.

OBJECTIVES OF THE CONSULTANCY

The purpose of this consultancy is to provide the DRC Asia region a foundational and core analysis of the contextual, conflict, protection, and broader humanitarian elements at play in the Asia context with a view to informing the development of DRC Asia’s strategic direction for 2022-2025.

I. The study will focus on the following three (3) areas of analysis with further sub-level analyses:

1. Forced displacement, migration and conflict trends

An in-depth analysis of the forced displacement trends in the Asia region, particularly along the Afghan and Rohingya displacement axes and within the DRC country operations

a. Context and Dynamics

i. Analysis of the political and conflict triggers and trends in the region

ii. Mid-to-longer term (3-5 years) displacement patterns, trends, and humanitarian consequences

iii. Emerging trends in relation to urban displacement, climate induced displacement, migration, youth

b. Analysis of the factors driving conflict and migration/displacement

c. Analysis of the key actors influencing the conflict, migration/displacement dynamics

2. Humanitarian Needs and Gaps

An analysis of the broad protection needs, the basic needs, the coping capacity and resources, as well as the identification of the key vulnerable groups and regional response gaps. This section will inform and supplement the regional protection, advocacy, and other relevant sectoral strategies.

3. Humanitarian Space and Access

Assess from a regional perspective the operational environment, the opportunities and challenges to reaching and accessing affected populations, including a mapping of key civil society actors and partners as well as traditional and non-traditional donors that are relevant for DRC to engage with, to effectively respond to emerging regional priorities.

II. Drawing on the analysis conducted, recommend regional strategic directions and formulate objectives, that are supported by a Theory of Change. The regional strategic direction will have to relate to DRC’s Global Response Framework as well the Strategic Programme Initiatives and Priorities, while also referring to linkages to country-level strategic priorities and direction.

EXPECTED OUTPUTS

The consultant will be expected to produce

1. A concise Core Analysis report for the DRC Asia region, based on the DRC template (10-15 pages, after final debrief and incorporation of DRC’s feedback), that comprises background, methodology, findings, analysis and conclusions, in addition to:

Standalone executive summary (3-4 pages)

1. Strategic Direction (DRC will provide a format/template)
2. Theory of Change
3. Strategic Objectives: Broadly articulate relevant regional strategic objectives for DRC Asia’s Strategic period 2022-2025.
4. Key Regional Programme Priorities: Clear recommendations on sectors, target groups, geographical focus, priority needs/issues/approaches linked to (i) the goals of the Global Response Framework (ii) Strategic Programme Initiatives (iii) Strategic Priorities and (iv) Organisational Principles.

§ Mapping of strategic institutional and non-traditional donors in relation to identified regional priorities.

· Annexes: Supporting documentation/records/minutes of meetings

TIMEFRAME & DURATION

The consultant will complete the work over a period of 30 days beginning with the date of signature of the contract and ending with the acceptance of the final report.

EXPECTED PROFILE/QUALIFICATIONS

· Consultant/s should have a degree in Law, Social Sciences, International Relations, Refugee Studies or any other related area of study;

· Significant experience in organisational strategy planning, development and review

· Significant experience with secondary data analysis processes

· Proven ability to deliver against targets and meet deadlines

· Excellent facilitation and report drafting skills

· Experience living/working in the Asia humanitarian context

· Fluency in written and spoken English.

The Consultant is obliged to abide by DRC’s code of conduct (Annex B).